Market insights · 4 min read
UK house price outlook for 2026: the data behind the -0.8% forecast in Liverpool: the honest take
Nationwide, Halifax, HMRC and the ONS all publish different numbers on different frequencies. Here's what the composite picture actually says about UK house prices this year.
Nationwide, Halifax, HMRC and the ONS all publish different numbers on different frequencies. Here's what the composite picture actually says about UK house prices this year.
What the four main indices are saying
Nationwide (mortgage approvals, seasonally adjusted) currently prints -0.8% year-on-year. Halifax runs 30–60bps hotter, HMRC's transaction-based series lags by a quarter, and ONS smooths the lot.
Regional divergence
The North West and East Midlands are pulling the national number higher; prime central London is negative in real terms. Cash-buyer markets outperform mortgage-dependent ones.
Transactions vs prices
Transactions are the leading indicator. A rising volume ahead of flat prices historically forecasts price growth 6–9 months out.
The mortgage rate variable
Every 25bps of Bank Rate change flows into 5-year swap rates within days and mortgage rates within weeks. Watch the swaps, not the headlines.
What the data doesn't say
New-build discounting is often invisible to the indices. Real market prices in some 2026 new-build estates are 5–10% below headline figures.
Frequently asked questions
- Will house prices crash in 2026?
- No mainstream forecaster predicts a crash. A soft plateau is the base case in most models.
- Where can I see live UK price data?
- Gaffbee publishes rolling 90-day medians by postcode on the house-prices tool.
